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From the February 16 riots occurred since Libya has become civil war, social unrest and armed intervention in the West that are likely to further intensify, upgrade, tens of hundreds of civilians killed in the conflict. Libya has far greater chaos Tunisia and Egypt. Preliminary analysis of the causes of the chaos of Libya, is generally believed that the following points:
First, and most fundamental reason is that Libya's social conflicts, especially the obvious contradiction between tribal, high unemployment rate.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the statistical report, 2010, Libya's oil industry accounts for 95% of exports, is a quarter of its GDP. As the largest country in Africa's oil reserves, Libya's per capita GDP reached nearly 15,000 U.S. dollars, ranking in the world is not low, but the lack of employment opportunities can provide a large number of manufacturing and services production, unemployment in Libya rate of nearly 30%. Although Libya's sovereign wealth fund is said to reach 600-700 billion dollars in size, but in the Libyan capital's streets and piles of refuse, even hotels have become dilapidated. Last year, Libya announced that it will invest $ 130 billion the next three years for infrastructure, but public discontent has become increasingly apparent, more and more acute social conflicts. In addition, Gaddafi to pursue long-term private small businesses, large state-owned policy, oil exploration, refining and other major industries, not to mention the work of government departments and other opportunities have been controlled by Gaddafi in Tripoli-based family-led Beni? Hilal (Beni Hilal) tribes in the hands of ordinary people's lives is not rich. And because Libya is unique historical and cultural traditions and the reality of social structures, Gaddafi came to power, Libya's only tribal social structure, other types of social organizations, including trade unions, etc. are banned. Tribesmen in Libya on tribal loyalty far more than loyalty to the country. Gaddafi rule in 40 years in the strong suppression of the development of other tribes, especially the large number of, to the eastern city of Cyrenaica as the main stronghold of the other major tribes Beni? Salem (Beni Salim) of development. Libya has long been entrenched in the tribal conflicts triggered by external forces to develop into civil war.
Secondly, Gaddafi's iron-fisted rule and 41 years, "inherited his father's" succession so that domestic parties very unhappy situation.
The chaos in the East and North Africa is characterized by a more prominent people dislike the individual long-term governance of family politics, "inherited his father's" serious dissatisfaction is the case in Egypt, Libya as well.
In 1969, only 27 years old, under the leadership of Muammar Gaddafi overthrew King Idris when he established the Libyan Arab Republic (renamed in 1977 after the great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, The Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya .) 40 years, the maverick leader in internal and external affairs have shown his toughness. For example, many times but without result with Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, the merger; repeatedly sent troops to Chad. More importantly, in recent years Gaddafi's son Saif efforts to train him? Islam? Gaddafi (Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi) take over the situation is very obvious, some experts said, Saif? Gaddafi has assume the responsibility of leading the country. In international affairs, because of his background of education in the UK and widespread contacts with the West, making the relations with the West in recent years, Libya has been improved to some extent; in domestic affairs, he vowed to build tax-free zone, to develop the 1200 kilometers of Mediterranean coast, we should build into North Africa, Libya, Dubai and so on. In fact, in the civil war in Libya, Gaddafi, he also has represented a televised speech, and said that even if the "rivers of blood" is also refusing to back down. It can be said, the ruling family has made Qaddafi the Libyan people hate and discontent, people seek change.
Third, by neighbors Tunisia and Egypt inspired a mass movement, a large number of opposition to the streets, while Gaddafi for people to take a tough repression, intensified the conflict.
40 years, although the domestic contradictions, challenges continue, but under the iron rule of the Libyan strongman has not occurred in the domestic regime of Gaddafi lethal effects of the event. The chaos in Libya, Tunisia and the direct contact of the mass movement has made progress in Egypt, the Libyan opposition's struggle to stimulate enthusiasm. In the call of opposition parties, a large number of people took to the streets to challenge the Gaddafi regime. In addition, long-term maverick Gaddafi, the Arab world, especially in the periphery too many enemies, too isolated, difficult to get effective assistance, making further expansion of domestic protests spread. At this point the attitude of Arab League countries is proof of Gaddafi.
Finally, the support of foreign forces in the opposition makes the final civil war broke out.
If the change in the situation in East and North Africa at the beginning of the current U.S. government has a passive, wait state, then when the large-scale protests in Libya when the United States has taken a proactive policy, and also "hedge." Sources pointed out that the Libyan opposition leader who calls the U.S. ambassador in Libya, informed the situation within the opposition, the U.S. ambassador in Lee asked whether weapons support. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary? Clinton made it clear that, in her visit to Tunisia and Egypt and Libya will hold talks with the opposition on the matter. Can say that if there is no overt or covert Western support for the Libyan people's protest will not turn into a civil war, and intensified.
We also see that the U.S. and other Western countries in the views on the issue of interest is not uniform. Although Western countries led by France Anglo-American air strikes against Libya has begun, and it is reported that hundreds of British special forces have entered Libya, France and even claim to carry out "decapitation operations", but the U.S. has made clear that the opposition. There are three main reasons, one Gaddafi's rule has its domestic base, there are many tribes, the military support him, which is the original Saddam Hussein in Iraq's situation is different; the other hand, through the last ten years efforts, Gaddafi to some extent eased relations with the West, for example, he publicly condemned the September 11 attacks; initiative that we do not develop weapons of mass destruction; assumed the Lockerbie air disaster, represented by several of responsibility and initiative compensation; the most important point is that the United States bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, two battlefields, especially those caught in tribal conflicts in Iraq, the lessons of the vortex, the United States more cautious and wise. While the financial crisis hurt the U.S. economy's vitality, the United States do not want to, not able to open up a new Libya battlefield. However, we regret to see that the Western countries led by France on the issue in Lee "kidnapping" the UN Security Council Resolution 1973, the Libyan situation more complicated, resulting in more civilian casualties, including the Arab League has given rise to non- EU and Libya, most domestic public opposition.
Today, Libya has more than one month of strife, and have upgraded to the war by the civil war situation. Face of the daily bloodshed and civilian casualties, we are concerned about the war when, in what way will end. The idea that, depending on two factors: First, divide the power of the Libyan national tribal mix; two Western countries next step. These two factors intertwined. In Libya, China, since the West would be unwise to intervene, has been greatly stimulated domestic factions against Western sentiment, if Gaddafi continues to be interest in major tribal support to the French-led Western intervention will be difficult to calm the situation. Even France and other Western countries, the use of military superiority eventually overthrow Gaddafi regime in the region will only create more instability, it will be the United States want to see. Next on the policy of Western countries, they use high-tech means to pursue the quick fix, the Western countries, especially the United States directly to sending ground forces into Libya is unlikely. There are two main reasons: First, do not meet the Obama administration continue to withdraw combat troops from the Middle East policy; the second is concerned directly involved in the Arab Middle East will provoke the people of the United States and the West to further resentment (which proved Indeed, the Western military strikes began, a large number of Libyan people took to the streets to oppose Western interference), in particular, worried that extremist forces to Libya become a second Afghanistan. In the United States do not want to pick the first case, France and Britain can really carry the banner of military strikes against Libya is still unknown. Thus, the view that the United States and other Western countries is likely to pursue a policy with two sides, on the one hand a limited military strike by the opposition and material support (including arms, money, supplies, etc.) to balance the domestic forces of Libya, increase in Western countries with Gaddafi and the opposition bargaining chips to gain greater benefits; the other hand, under the authority through the United Nations peacekeeping operations, isolate the conflict, negotiations. However, only one of its ultimate goal is to weaken the checks and balances Libya. Some analysts said that a split into two or even three of Libya in the West seems more in line with their interests. Now conclude that the ultimate beneficiaries of the Libyan civil strife Who is too early, but the loser has been very clear that the Libyan people. (Institute of International Relations, Peking male tiger wing) (Editor: Fu-Long)
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發表於 11-10-30 06:19 PM
發表於 11-10-30 09:04 PM
