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THE NEXT STEP: THE BIG PUSH
It's one season I never thought I'd be sad to see the end of, given it seems to have been going on for the gestation period of an obdurately overdue elephant. But the way things are currently panning out, the end can only come too soon.
Ten wins on the spin: those dark days of winter seem a long time ago now. From goal-shy 'failures' to a team averaging three goals and three points per game since mid-March.
Last August I felt this was a campaign where the Reds needed to put down a marker on a future title challenge, rather than expect to make one this time around. I think I described it as building a camp on Everest – you climb in stages. Of course, had Chelsea experienced a disastrous season, this would be good enough for a title challenge; 79 points has won the title in recent years, as has a total as low as 75. But Chelsea remain extremely consistent.
While two decades ago 'surprise' teams rarely won England's top division (after all, it was mostly Liverpool), there were always teams like Southampton and Watford who could spring a shock 2nd place finish. These days the surprise tends to come in the team that finishes 4th. The top three rarely includes an unexpected name.
I felt establishing a place in a clearly-defined top four was the Reds' aim for the season, although Arsenal, currently 5th after nine seasons spent finishing no lower than 2nd, have found that doing well in the Champions League and the Premiership in the same season is a tall order. The phenomenal 43 point swing from Arsenal to Liverpool in 12 months owes much to the Gunners' inconsistency this term, but also the 21 points the Reds have already added to their 2005 total.
A year ago Arsene Wenger compared Liverpool reaching the final in Istanbul with Millwall making the FA Cup final. I take it Mr Wenger is not being so demeaning about his own team's efforts. Arsenal are so far behind in the league, Liverpool have established a clear top three – although I fully expect the Gunners to be back challenging next season. But they are no longer the better side.
With three English teams reaching European finals within a year, it's fair to say the Premiership is currently a very strong league, as the country gets back to the levels of 20 years ago in continental tournaments. Rafa Benítez arrived in England when the competition was fierce.
I felt 70-75 points was a realistic target this season – even after the difficult start. Even I, with my big red positivity hat on, never expected the Reds to be one win away from 82 points; I'm always happy to be proven wrong by the team exceeding my expectations.
But next season is when it will get really interesting. Ten months ago I made the point that teams do not jump from 5th to 1st anymore. So the aim was always to get as close to Chelsea as possible, regroup and redouble the efforts ahead of 2006/07.
The first stage of that aim has clearly been successful; the next part is to bolster the squad with quality additions, in order to improve the one or two areas still undermanned, and to hope all key men return fit and healthy from 'Germany 2006'. Then it will be up to everyone at the club to prove this season was indeed a stepping stone, and not the high-water mark of the Benítez years, as happened to Gérard Houllier in 2002.
Since the Premiership began (and by using that timeframe I don't wish to pretend the other 100+ years of top-flight football did not exist), the team which won the title – if it was their first in a long time – finished 2nd the season before.
Manchester United finished four points behind Leeds in 1992, but won the league a year later. In 1994, Blackburn finished 2nd, eight points behind United, and won the league in 1995. In 1997 Arsenal finished 3rd –– although level on points with 2nd-placed Newcastle United and seven behind Manchester United; Arsenal won the league a year later. Then in 2004 Chelsea finished 2nd, with 79 points to Arsenal's 90, a year before landing their first title in 50 years.
With each of those 2nd-placed teams the gap to the eventual champions was fairly substantial. By becoming champions 12 months later they were not making up a difference of a point or two; on average, it was 7.5 points by which they trailed the previous season, with the highest jump made by Chelsea, who were 11 points in arrears of Arsenal in 2004. The closest the Reds can get to Chelsea this season is 9 points, but could still end up double that.
While 37 points is an impossible gap to overhaul in one single year, especially with the pursued team showing no signs of under-performing, a dozen-or-so makes it far more interesting. |
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